How to Use the Probability Formula to Get You Hired

The hardest part of finding a job is not perfecting your resume or even the interview process - it's knowing whether or not you're even going to get job offers in the first place. Though it can be challenging and most of it is down to luck and the strength of both your resume and your portfolio, some of it can be boiled down to simple math.

Using the probability formula to properly predict the outcome of your employment prospects is the secret to knowing whether or not you'll be able to land an interview and eventually land that job in the first place.

Continue reading on to learn more about the probability formula, what it can do to help you get hired, and how it can help you map out your employment prospects in the first place.

What is the probability formula?

The probability formula is a simple solution that can be used to help predict the outcome of a certain situation. For this particular example, let us consider that the probability formula will be used to predict whether or not you'll land your dream job.

For this example, the hiring probability formula should be the following:

Probability = (number of favorable outcomes) / (total number of possible outcomes)

This can then help you decide whether or not you'll want to continue your application with company A, find another opportunity with company B, or move forward with your application with company C.

It's also important to consider that the probability formula's results are expressed in fractions. For example, a ½ probability means that you have essentially a 50/50 chance of getting the job.

How can the probability formula help you get hired?

Simple - this is because the probability formula can help dictate the possible outcomes for your application process and help you decide on your next step in the application process. With inflation and the job market becoming that much more competitive nowadays, knowing your odds at that one application process can help you choose your next steps.

It's important to always consider Murphy's Law - also known as whatever will happen is bound to happen, especially when it comes to getting hired. There are plenty of different factors, like other applicants fitting better with the company culture, the hiring managers looking for certain characteristics, should properly be considered before truly waiting for an email from one specific company.

The difference between probability and odds

The main difference between hiring possibility and hiring odds is the fact that probability is the number of successful attempts compared to the number of trials that are needed. Odds, on the other hand, are the number of successes compared to the number of failures that it took.

Both numbers can help provide a job seeker with the confidence that they need to either look for a new opportunity elsewhere or to continue with their prospective career with a different company.

Calculate the probability rate using this formula:

For this article, let us assume that company A has sent you an email for a final interview, company B has sent a calendar invite for a primary interview, and you've just sent company C a resume.

First, let us calculate the probability rate for company A using the formula above.

Probability formula for company A = 1 (number of favorable outcomes, or the final interview resulting in you getting hired) / 2 (total number of possible outcomes, or the final interview resulting in you getting hired or getting rejected).

This means that the probability rate for getting hired for company A is basically a 50/50 chance.

Secondly, let us calculate the hiring probability for company B. This time though, consider the fact that there are 3 favorable outcomes (passing the initial interview, moving on to the final interview, and then getting hired) and 5 possible outcomes (the initial 3 mentioned, plus failing the initial interview, and passing the initial interview but failing the final interview).

Thus, the probability rate for company B would look like this:

Probability formula for company B: 3 (favorable outcome) / 5 (possible number of outcomes).

This means that your hiring probability for company B would be 3/5. It's not a lot, but it will still be a relatively positive outcome, even if there are still a few chances of receiving a less than desirable outcome.

Lastly, let us calculate the probability formula for company C. This one will have more outcomes than the rest.

For company C, the more positive outcomes include getting selected and passing an initial interview, receiving an email for the final interview, and passing it to eventually getting hired. The other possible outcomes include the 5, plus getting rejected to all three, the possibility of the hiring manager not even seeing your resume, and your resume being rejected in the first place. This would result in 10 possible outcomes.

Thus, the probability rate for company C would be:

Probability formula for company C: 5 (possible positive outcomes) / 10 (possible outcomes)

This means that for passing a resume for company C, you would be looking at a 50% hiring probability. Though it's not a lot, your odds of getting hired for this specific company essentially boil down to a coin toss.

At the end of the day, it's important to remember that the probability formula are just numbers - what would really dictate your chances of getting your dream job is by being confident in your abilities and selling yourself to the hiring managers.

Oncce you've got everything figured out, you'll lastly need to know your worth. Luckily, Salary.com's Personal Salary Report can help you make more informed decisions about what you're worth faster and more accurately.